Top 10 Most Watched IPOs in California 2025-2026

GFM Observation Team

The following 10 companies span payment processing, Fintech, AI, medical supply, clean energy, ticketing, and apparel, presenting the technology and consumption-driven IPO boom of 2025-2026. AI-related companies (Databricks, OpenAI, Cerebras) show the strongest growth, with average YoY revenue exceeding 150%, and valuations often reaching hundreds of billions to trillions of US dollars, yet generally remain in a phase of huge losses; Finance and payment companies (Stripe, Chime) have stable cash flow, are near or have achieved profitability, with valuation multiples of 20-25x ARR; Consumption and supply chain companies (Shein, Medline, Vuori, SeatGeek) show slower growth (10-35%), but demonstrate resilience through localized warehousing and physical store expansion; Fervo Energy, a geothermal energy star, has the most explosive growth (300%+), but remains high-risk due to its small scale. Overall, AI remains the largest trend in capital, with total fundraising exceeding 200 billion USD, and most IPOs are postponed until 2026 due to regulation, geopolitical factors, and market volatility. Risks are concentrated in tariffs (Shein), regulatory scrutiny (Cerebras G42 transaction), massive cash burn (OpenAI), and the impact of economic recession on consumption, but these companies simultaneously possess strong moats and policy dividends, and are expected to usher in a new wave of technology IPOs in 2026.

1. Stripe (Payment Processing)

The global payment infrastructure leader, valued at 106.7 billion USD in 2025, a 52% increase from 70 billion USD in 2024. Processed 1.4 trillion USD in transactions in 2024, 2025 revenue is expected to be 5.1 billion USD, EBITDA is nearly 1 billion USD, and it has been consistently profitable. There is no clear IPO timeline, but it is widely expected to list in 2026, with a fundraising target of 15 billion USD. Relying on developer-friendly tools and an AI anti-fraud system, its clients include Amazon, OpenAI, etc., and its degree of internationalization is much higher than similar Fintech companies. Like Chime, it relies on interchange fees for revenue, but Stripe's growth is steadier and its global layout is more balanced. Challenges come from regulation and competition like Adyen, but its stablecoin and embedded finance layout make it the true "water, electricity, and gas" of the AI era. Once listed, it is expected to become one of the largest IPOs in Fintech history.

2. Shein (Cross-border Fast Fashion)

The cross-border fast fashion overlord, valued at approximately 50–66 billion USD in 2025, halved from its peak earlier in the year due to the impact of US tariffs. 2024 revenue was 38 billion USD, 2025 is expected to be 56 billion USD, net profit 2 billion USD, and the profit margin continues to improve. Its supply chain releases 100,000 styles daily, with California local warehouses rapidly responding to tariffs, and its pricing strategy still holds an overwhelming advantage. Originally scheduled for listing in 2025, it has been postponed to 2026 and shifted to Hong Kong. Similar to Vuori in the consumer sector, but Shein is more accessible and larger in scale, and although its growth has slowed to 23%, it still far exceeds traditional apparel brands. The biggest risks remain geopolitics and sustainability controversy, but its supply chain efficiency is unmatched globally, and its market value still has room to double once the tariff environment eases. 3. Databricks (AI Data Lakehouse)

The AI data lakehouse leader, valued over 100 billion USD in 2025, with ARR reaching 4 billion USD, YoY growth over 50%, and has achieved positive cash flow. Its lakehouse architecture is fully ahead of Snowflake, with over 15,000 enterprise customers. An IPO in late 2025 or early 2026 is almost certain, with a fundraising target of 5 billion USD. Similar to OpenAI in AI infrastructure, but Databricks is more enterprise-focused with a clear path to profitability, making it one of the few AI unicorns with both explosive growth and financial health. It would not be surprising if its market value challenges Oracle after listing.

4. Chime (Digital Bank)

The largest pure digital bank in the US, completed its IPO in June 2025, with a market cap of 11.2 billion USD, a significant drop from its peak of 25 billion USD. 2024 revenue was 1.7 billion USD, 2025 is expected to be 2.16 billion USD, with 13 million users and 90 billion USD in platform assets. The no-fee model relies on interchange fees, with costs only one-third of traditional banks, and is close to overall profitability. Similar to Stripe as a beneficiary of interchange fees, but Chime focuses more on the middle- and lower-income demographic in the US, with high growth stability. The stock price still has upward potential after listing, with user retention and ARPU increase being key. 5. Medline (Medical Devices)

The largest medical consumables and equipment distributor in the US, valued at 50 billion USD in 2025, 2024 revenue 25.5 billion USD, 9.7% growth, 2025 expected 27.2–28 billion USD. Market share about 20%. PE giants like Blackstone are seeking an exit. The Q4 2025 IPO plan aims to raise 5 billion USD, mainly to reduce leverage. Although growth is slow, the cash flow is extremely stable, classifying it as an "invisible giant" in the medical field, and is expected to become a high-quality defensive target after listing. 6. OpenAI (Generative AI)

The undisputed king of Generative AI, valued at 500 billion USD in 2025, ARR 20 billion USD, YoY growth 200%, but the cash burn rate is equally astonishing. ChatGPT has 500 million weekly active users, with rapid penetration into the enterprise sector. The IPO is expected in the second half of 2026 at the earliest, with a fundraising target of 60 billion USD, which would set a historical record. It is deeply tied to Microsoft, while also expanding collaboration with Google Cloud to mitigate risk. Although short-term profitability is difficult, its long-term ceiling is the highest, truly deserving the title of "IPO of the Century." 7. Fervo Energy (Geothermal Energy)

The dark horse of next-generation geothermal energy, valued at 3–4 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate over 300%. Google signed a 400MW long-term contract, regulatory acceleration during the Trump era, and technological cooperation with oil giants. The Q1 2026 IPO plan aims to raise 3 billion USD. It is a pure high-risk, high-reward clean energy bet, and once technology and policy materialize, it will become a leader in the baseload green energy revolution.

8. SeatGeek (Ticketing Platform)

A major North American ticketing platform, valued at 1.2 billion USD in 2025, with 19 million monthly active users, and official secondary ticketing partnerships with MLB and NHL. The Q4 2025 IPO plans to raise 500–800 million USD. Growth is only 12.6%, but cash flow is healthy, and AI dynamic pricing enhances gross margin. It is a stable "small but beautiful" IPO case, suitable for investors who favor event-driven economics.

9. Cerebras (AI Wafer-Scale Chip)

The challenger in AI wafer-scale chips, valued at 8.1 billion USD in 2025, with the Wafer-Scale Engine solving the Nvidia GPU shortage. 2024 revenue growth was 535%, but it is highly dependent on G42 orders, and CFIUS scrutiny has postponed the IPO to 2026. Technologically advanced but with high commercialization risk, if customer diversification succeeds, it will become the purest bet in the AI hardware sector.

10. Vuori (Performance Lifestyle Apparel)

A Southern California high-end performance lifestyle brand, valued at 5 billion USD in 2025, 2024 revenue exceeded 1 billion USD, 80% growth, with 75 physical stores. IPO expected in late 2025 or 2026, aiming to raise 5 billion USD. Positioned between Lululemon and Alo, with accelerating international expansion (flagship stores opened in Seoul and Beijing). It is a high-quality asset with the strongest growth potential in the consumer sector, expected to challenge Lululemon's market value after listing.